A grade one, run over 3 miles, the Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle, has attracted a field of 7 runners, and is set to be dominated by Willie Mullins. Preview not for you? Jump straight to my tips for the 4.55 Punchestown.
Ballycasey missed Cheltenham due to a slight muscle problem, which will, if he’s fully recovered, mean he’ll line up fresher than most. Ruby Walsh rides him instead of his stable-mate, and the second favourite, Inish Island. Ballycasey has had just the two hurdle starts, winning both comfortably. It is very hard to put a level on the form, as he looked to win with a good deal in hand last time. That was back in January, at Thurles, in a 5 runner affair. His immediate victims weren’t much good though, Milborough had previously won a Tramore maiden, and the 3rd Bonisland, only a Down Royal maiden. Bonisland has got beaten in his 5 starts, since that win. He can only beat them easily, and Ruby clearly thinks he’s useful, but I don’t see any value in the odds on quotes, to beat a horse like Inish Island, who has a high level of form already in the book.
Inish Island has been progressive since winning his maiden hurdle. He was unlucky to run into At Fishers Cross, when 2nd in a handicap at Cheltenham in December, and after easily winning in between, he went back to Cheltenham and came 3rd, again to At Fishers Cross in the Albert Bartlett. The slow pace in that race wouldn’t have suited him, and he just failed to get up for second, having stayed on strongly. Had they gone even a reasonable gallop, I’d be confident he’d have beaten the rest comfortable, and while he wouldn’t have got near the winner, that’s no disgrace, as he’s a very good horse. With a smallish field here, we probably won’t get a great gallop, but it really can’t be as slowly run, as that Cheltenham race.
Road to Riches won his first two hurdles, showing decent form, before disappointing at Aintree. He’d had a setback before the race, and the ground wouldn’t have suited, as he likely needs it softer. He would still need to improve on his previous form, to win this though, and that combined with having to bounce back quickly from a very poor run, would make me swerve him.
Seafood doesn’t look good enough, and the way he folded, after travelling well, over half a mile shorter at Aintree, suggests he doesn’t want the extra trip either. Jennies Jewel is exposed as a good way short of this level, and while Morning Assembly has had less chance to show how good he is, its unlikely to be good enough.
I’ve no huge fancy here but it really should go to one of the Mullins pair, and at the current odds, I’d definitely prefer Inish Island, at the 9/4 he is with
4.55 Punchestown – Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle – Tips
3 pt win Inish Island at 9/4 BOG with Coral
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Stakes are on a scale of 0-10. Further details can be found in Free Horse Racing Tips – Staking and Betting Bank size Recommendations
BOG stands for Best Odds Guaranteed, which means if you take a price and SP is better, you get the SP.
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