A grade one chase for staying novices, this years renewal has drawn together a decent field of 8 runners. We have the winner of the National Hunt Chase from Cheltenham, as well as some of the main contenders from the RSA. If you want. you can skip straight to my tips for the Growise Champion Novice Chase.

Willie Mullins has declared two here, and surprisingly Ruby Walsh is set to ride Back in Focus. Perhaps the intention is to only run one of them, as Boston Bob, his other contender, also shares the same owner. I strongly fancied Back in Focus, to win the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, surmising that the step up to 4 miles would suit him well. It definitely seemed to help him, as having looked well beaten on the run to the last, the leader, and tomorrow’s rival, Tofino Bay, fell in a hole and Back in Focus got up to beat him close home. On the basis of that run, the drop back to 3 miles 1 furlong will hardly suit, and solely on that run, its hard to see him confirming his superiority over the 2nd.  Back in Focus is now 4 form 4 over fences though, and as such, it would be folly to write off his chances. The likely test of stamina on the ground, will definitely suit.

Boston Bob looked set to win the RSA chase last time, until putting in an extra stride at the last, and coming down. He was just over 1l clear at the time, and while he wasn’t going any further clear, he looked to be looking around a bit in front, and I’d be pretty confident he’d have beaten the eventual winner, Lord Windermere. You could argue it wasn’t a great ride from Paul Townend, he rushed Boston Bob up to lead, wide around the last bend, and had he waited till they straightened up, he surely would have been better off. The way he picked up when asked, suggests he had plenty left, and if he had got beaten after that, it would have been more because he used him up to soon, rather than not being the best horse.

Yes the RSA was a substandard renewal, but it was surely still a better race than the National Hunt Chase. Ruby not picking him here is a surprise, but he may not have had a choice. Paul has ridden Boston Bob the last twice and it makes sense to leave him on him. His run at Cheltenham was an improvement on his previous chase victory,  and that was a big step up from his first chase start, a further step forward tomorrow, could be enough to get back on the winning trail.

Lyreen Legend finished behind Boston Bob, albeit only by 1l, at Leopardstown in February, over 2 miles 5 furlongs, and looked set to come off 3rd best in the RSA, until that one came down at the last, he seemed to get outstayed by Lord Windermere on the run in that day, and the extra stamina test, the conditions will provide here, is hardly in his favour. He’s tough and consistent but to win this, I think he’d need a few of the others to run below their best.

Harry Topper won his first four chase starts, including an unlikely victory over Benefficient at Newbury in November. He didn’t look like a winner at almost any stage that day until after the last, when the 2nd weakened. Despite the fast the the trip that day was a little far for Benefficient, that’s still a good level of form. Harry Topper has tended to make a few mistakes over fences, and after easily winning at Exeter next time, he came a cropper at Kelso. His trainer thinks very highly of him, and skipped Cheltenham. That can only help tomorrow, as it means he should be fresher than most, and the likely stamina test will suit him down to the ground. You could argue he’ll need to find a few pound to prove victorious, but granted a decent round of jumping, that’s a very likely scenario.

Dedigout has been a little disappointing so far over fences, maybe he needs this trip to bring out the best in him, and Davy Russell rides in preference to Tofino Bay. It was also in April last season when he showed his best hurdle form, winning at Fairyhouse and Punchestown. Last time in the Powers Gold Cup he looked like coming last, rounding the last bend, but stayed on strongly to come 2nd, to the all the way winner, Realt Mor. The way he come home so strongly, suggested the extra trip in this will suit, and he must have a chance.

Tofino Bay has had a good season over fences and looked set to beat Back in Focus at Cheltenham, until tying up after the last, he looked a real stayer previously,  so he may not be better at this trip. His defeat was probably more to do with an overly aggressive ride. Whichever way you look at it, on that form there’s little between him and Back in Focus, yet Tofino Bay is a much bigger price here. He is more exposed however having previously been beaten by RSA 5th, Terminal, at Navan. He was giving the winner 5lb though. Tofino Bay is tough, consistent and very likely to run his race.

Mount Benbulben has ruined a few winning chances, jumping to his right this season, but when he went left handed at Thurles, he bolted up. He looked set to run well in the Powers at Fairyhouse, but a mistake at the 3rd last, took the stuffing out of him. He finished 4th that day, almost 3l behind Dedigout, and while a fluent round of jumping would be a help, you’d have to think the extra distance is more likely to suit Dedigout.

Of the Willie duo, I prefer Boston Bob, despite Ruby ridding Back in Focus, but I think the best bet is Harry Topper, at 5/1 with

[adrotate banner=”75″]. Their offer of a refund, in the form of a free bet, if your horse finishes 2nd, to any Willie Mullins trained runner this week, is especially good value in this race, with Willie having the two favourites. It’s limited to £/€25, but that’s a decent stake on a 5/1 shot for most people. With the BetVictor offer in mind, Tofino Bay is also worth a bet at 15/2 with them.

 

6.40 Punchestown – Growise Champion Novice Chase – Tips

 

2 pt win Harry Topper at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor

 

1 pt win Tofino Bay at 15/2 BOG with BetVictor

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Stakes are on a scale of 0-10. Further details can be found in Free Horse Racing Tips – Staking and Betting Bank size Recommendations

 

 

BOG stands for Best Odds Guaranteed, which means if you take a price and SP is better, you get the SP.

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