Ascot Gold Cup Tips and Preview – 3.45 Ascot

Looking at the betting for this years Ascot Gold Cup you’d be forgiven for thinking it was a very competitive handicap. It is very competitive, but its not a handicap. The big field is probably more indicative of the lack of any star stayers, and thus many more trainers are keen to have a go. We do have two former winners in Rite of Passage and last years victor Colour Vision. The ground is good to firm as I write this, but their could be significant rain between now and the off at 3.45 tomorrow. Before betting today check out the updated specials for all the latest bookies offers.

Tips for the Ascot Gold Cup

Rite of Passage has only run twice since winning this in 2010, and has been very hard to train due to leg trouble. His trainer has not yet committed him to run tomorrow, and is hopping for some overnight rain before he does. Rite Of Passage goes on fast ground, indeed it was fast when he won the race, but his legs are clearly very fragile, and if we don’t get rain he may not be risked. As training achievements go, it was a fantastic one to win an Ascot Gold Cup with a horse who had his last run at Cheltenham, and another to produce him fit after 17 months off, to win at Ascot on Champions Day last October. If he runs, and there is rain forecast,  he has to have a chance as I doubt he’d need to be at his very best to win this. It is asking a lot of the now 9 year old to run close to his 2010 form with all the injuries he’s had.

Estimate is another that could do with the forecast rain arriving as she hasn’t run on fast ground since her debut, and won the Queens Vase on soft last season. She looks like she’d stay all day, so the step up in trip should suit, and  while she’d need to improve on the bare form of her reappearance win at Ascot, she is very likely to do so. A properly run race at 2 1/2 miles could see loads of progress, and she must have a great chance. She doesn’t need soft by any means, good ground without any jar will do just fine.

Simenon flew home in the Chester Cup, but as often happens with fast finishing, apparently unlucky in running horses, they tend to be over bet next time. He’s only 7/1 to win a very competitive group one, yet in a career spanning 21 flat, and 8 hurdle starts, he’s never looked to be in this class, and is rated on a career high of just 108. The fact he won here twice last season is surely been hugely overestimated, and he surely can only drift from his current price, which as I write is 7/1, and looks one of the worst prices I’ve seen all year. 20/1 would seem about right.

Saddlers Rock looks short on a brief look at his recent form, and its true none of it will be good enough to win this. He probably needs a specific set of circumstances to be at his best though, namely a well run race, on fast ground, over 2  1/2 mile. He might just get it tomorrow, although with rain forecast, he might have to settle for good ground. He will stay all day, but seems to pull when they go steady, and while you would normally be better letting this type stride on, he doesn’t seem to like leading. If he arrives in the same form as when 3rd last season, and gets a gallop to run at, there won’t be many staying on better at the end.

High Jinx has been very consistent in these staying races but has not won in his last 5. If they get some rain he should run well, but its hard to see him winning it. Last Train was 2nd in last years Grand Prix De Paris, and won a slowly run 2 mile group 3. If he stays he probably has a chance, but that must be a big if, as he’s only proven at 12 furlongs in a decent run race.

Colour Vision won this last year despite the ground being softer than ideal. He’s been disappointing since though, and while he may get better ground tomorrow, than on his recent run at Sandown, he ran so poorly there he’d be very hard to back with any confidence. Times Up is another who should run well, but doesn’t have the same potential to progress as a few others, and maybe is more of a place chance.

Earl Of Tinsdal has a good bit to prove regarding the trip. He stepped up to 2 mile from 12 furlongs last time, but after going clear a few furlongs out, he was caught and finished 3rd. He would need to not just stay the trip, but improve for it to win this. Top Trip is another making a big jump up in trip here, but he has more chance of staying it than many others, as he looked like he wanted every yard of 14 furlongs at York last time. He wouldn’t need to progress too much to have a chance. A worry with him is his wide draw, and his jockey Mickael Barzalona, who showed over and over in Dubai this winter than he doesn’t mind giving loads of ground away going wide.

I really like Biographer. He was very progressive last season, and looked very well handicapped when he reappeared off 101 at Newmarket. The problem was so did a number of other horses in that race. The fast ground was also a concern for Biographer beforehand, and in the race he seemed to be a bit outpaced in the dip, before finishing strongly, it could also have been a case of him not letting himself down on the ground until he met the rising ground. Either way it was a really good run. The winner Tiger Cliff would likely have won at Royal Ascot on Tuesday with a better ride, the 2nd De Rigueur won a decent Haydock race next time, the horse who dead heated with Biographer for 4th, Caravan Rolls On, had looked really well in beforehand, and the 6th Taglietelle won next time. Biographer needs to come on a bit on that, but he looks like the trip could improve him and the likely rain is a huge plus.

The field compromises horses who need to improve for the step up in trip, horses like Colour Vision who need to bounce back and horses who are already decent over similar trips but lack much scope to do any better. I think Estimate can improve on two counts, she’s lightly raced, and the trip looks to be exactly what she wants, on that basis the 6/1 she is with

Last updated by Declan Meagher at September 11, 2018.