Saturday is the day the jumps season ends, the last day of the Punchestown Festival, and a mixed card at Sandown, featuring the Bet 365 Gold Cup, a handicap chase run over 3 miles, 5 furlongs, and 110 yards. I remember this race when it used to be the Whitbread. Sadly its no longer the top quality race it was back then, and with the top weight rated less than 150, its just another good handicap chase.
Well Refreshed has improved enormously this season, winning a 5 runner race at Fontwell in November off a perch of 100, and now rated 142, after an easy victory of 129 in Haydock’s Grand National trial. That he won so well that day, having made mistakes, shows how progressive he is. Apart from the Fontwell victory, his other 3 wins came on very soft ground, and he’s clearly very effective in such conditions. Up in the weights, in a slightly better race, and on probably much better ground, I think he has his work cut out. The better ground could be a double blow, as even if he’s as effective on it, the lessened test of stamina it provides, would also be against him.
Away We Go has had just the one chase start, since joining Willie Mullins back in October, that was in the Irish National, and he looked set to collect when travelling best into the straight. He runs off the same mark here, which is lenient as Irish horses tend to be a few pound higher in the UK. If he’s in the same form as the last day, he’d clearly have every chance. It is a big ask for a horse to reproduce that effort so soon afterwards, and he did finish quite tired. Willie Mullins is a master at his craft though, and he must be happy with the horse to send him over.
Same Difference finished 3rd to Unioniste at Newbury, with today’s rival, Hadrian’s Approach in 2nd. He followed that up with a 6th in the Racing Plus at Kempton, and a battling victory in the Fulke Walwyn at Cheltenham. He was off 137 that day, so must have a chance off 7lb higher here. He is however only receiving 3lb from Hadrians Approach, and that one looked a much superior horse at Newbury.
Hadrian’s Approach finished a staying on 2nd behind Dynaste in the Grade One Feltham at Kempton, before that Newbury run. He surely would have won at Newbury, had he not made a bad mistake at the second last, and did really well to only go down by a short head. The form is strong. The winner had easily won a big handicap off 143 on his previous start, and Same Difference who was 3 1/4l back in 3rd, went on to win off 137 at Cheltenham. Hadrians Approach himself went on to turn the tables on Unioniste, when he finished 3rd in the RSA chase, despite getting hampered by the last fence fall of Boston Bob. On his bare form, his mark of 147 looks very fair, and he has plenty of potential to improve. His jumping hasn’t been great, but the extra distance and subsequently likely slower pace, should help in that regard. He has also looked, on more than one occasion, as if a step up in trip would suit. All told he looks to have a big chance.
Hold On Julio was very impressive when winning at Sandown last season. That brought his record to 2 for 2 at Sandown. He stormed away from subsequent Grand National hero Neptune Collonges that day, all the more remarkable since he didn’t jump well, and looked to have it all to do at halfway. It’s a bit disappointing that he hasn’t won in 4 chase starts since, slow jumping has been a problem at times. The one thing he’s always looked like he needs, is a trip though. The furthest he’s gone so far was the 3 miles, 3 furlongs of the Hennessy, when he was a credible 5th to Bobs Worth, this race isn’t in the same league as the quality that day. He was never in it at Ascot last time, staying on into 5th, but good ground and a bare 3 miles isn’t his thing. If he can get into a rhythm here, he’s well enough handicapped to win, and will love the trip.
Galaxy Rock has some good form in decent handicaps when he gets goodish ground. He could run well, but may not have enough in hand to win. Mr Moss is still lightly raced, and could improve, but he’ll need to. After coming 3rd to Wyck Hill at Wetherby, he was just touched off at Doncastor. That wasn’t that good a race though, and off a 6lb higher mark in a better race, he has a bit to find.
I fancied Bradley in last weeks Scottish National, mainly because I anticipated improvement for the step up in trip. He got brought down at the first, and has some sort of a chance, but this test is 4 furlongs shorter than that race, so he doesn’t appeal as much as he did then. Duke of Lucca has been pretty consistent is similar races, and should stay the trip. Balthazar King ran well for a long way in the Grand National, but that race might have taken the edge off him, as he finished very tired.
A few bookies are going 5 places on this, and it’s on thoses terms that I like Hadrians Approach each way at 10/1 with the sponsors
Bet 365 Gold Cup – Tips – 3.50 Sandown
1 pt EW (5 places) Hadrians Approach at 10/1 BOG with Bet 365
[adrotate banner=”24″]
1 pt EW (5 places) Hold on Julio at 12/1 BOG with Paddy Power
[adrotate banner=”58″]
Stakes are on a scale of 0-10. Further details can be found in Free Horse Racing Tips – Staking and Betting Bank size Recommendations
Also use the Best Odds Checker to ensure you always get the top price on your fancy.
BOG stands for Best Odds Guaranteed, which means if you take a price and SP is better, you get the SP.
If you find this post interesting, please share it via the social media buttons, you own blog, or online forums.
