The last of the major Epsom Derby trials is run at York this Thursday. The last time the winner of the Dante went on to follow up at Epsom, was Authorized back in 2007. With a few unexposed promising types in this years race, there must be a good chance a credible contender will emerge.
Aidan O’Brien supplies the favourite, Indian Chief, which is hardly surprising given he’s been mopping up most of the other Derby Trials recently. It should be noted most of those races, had far weaker fields than tomorrow’s race. Indian Chief a son of Montjeu, cost €360,000 as a yearling, and after finishing 2nd on his debut last season, he won his maiden at Leopardstown in April. He traveled well through the race, and showed a decent turn of foot, without being spectacular, to win by 2l. The second has since won his maiden, although you wouldn’t say it franked the form much. On the bare from Indian Chief has no chance, and even on the impression he created, you’d be hard pushed to think he was a potential group two winner next time. Aidan’s horses can improve hugely from their maiden win though. Only last week, another son of Montjeu, Leading Light, improved about 2 stone from his maiden run to win at Navan. Apart from winning all around him in the Derby Trial department this season, Aidan has historically done very well in the Dante. From his last 7 runners in the race, he’s had 3 winners and 3 seconds.
Windhoek represents Mark Johnston, and is unbeaten in 3 starts. He won a sales race at Newmarket on his reappearance this season, beating tomorrow’s rivals, Greatwood, and Ghurair into 2nd and 3rd respectively. He traveled like the best horse that day, but after edging to his left a furlong down, he only just held on by a SH. Next time, again at Newmarket, he won easily, but not before giving his backers a huge fright when again hanging violently left. The form of that isn’t up to much, and neither in truth is the race he beat Greatwood in, the 4th in that Havana Beat got hammered at Chester last week, and the hampered 5th, Fehaydi was well beaten of 88 in a handicap. Of the 3 Windhoek has easily the most potential. The negatives tomorrow are, his trainers record at York is terrible, many of them seemingly not handling the surface, and also with the runners likely to come up the center of the track, any wayward tendencies from Windhoek will cost him dearly.
Greatwood as mentioned, was 2nd to Windhoek, but with that been his 4th run, and he’s now only won one of them, he has less scope, and the form isn’t all that good anyway. I couldn’t have him at current quotes of only 5/1. Ghurair has also had 4 starts, and had no real excuses when 1/2l further back that day, on that basis 6/1 doesn’t appeal here either.
Jim Bolger sends Trading Leather over. After winning a maiden at Gowran Park last season, he put up a battling display to win a group 3 at Newmarket. He followed that with a well beaten 5th in the Racing Post Trophy. The ground was soft that day, and maybe that was an excuse, but while he will probably improve for the step up in trip, his overall profile wouldn’t have me jumping to back him. A negative is Jim Bolgers horses aren’t running all that well. Just 1 winner from 40 runners in the past two weeks. In that period he had just 8 horses placed, when about 17 would have been expected.
Secret Number is a fascinating contender. After winning his maiden at Kempton, his next start was in a listed race in Meydan in March. He was trapped wide all the way, and while the slow pace negated that to an extend, he was still very wide on the home bend when the race was at its hottest, that he maintained his position, and eventually won going away, suggesting he was much the superior horse. He got the chance to prove it in the UAE Derby, but under a poor ride he had no chance. Held up way off another slow pace, he did very well to finish a 2l 3rd to Lines Of Battle. He shaped like the best horse in the race, and looks potentially top class. There’s no reason he wont be equally as effective on Turf, although you’d imagine he wouldn’t want the ground to soften much more. A slight negative is, his trainers record, is the opposite of Aidan O’Briens in this race, The best his 5 recent runners in the race has managed, is 4th with 7/4 shot Chabal in 2010.
The two that appeal most at the prices are Indian Chief to continue his trainers red hot streak, at 3/1 with
Betfred Dante Tips – 2.45 York
3 pt Win Indian Chief at 3/1 BOG with Coral
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2 pt win Secret Number at 7/1 with Sky Bet
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Stakes are on a scale of 0-10. Further details can be found in Free Horse Racing Tips – Staking and Betting Bank size Recommendations
BOG stands for Best Odds Guaranteed, which means if you take a price and SP is better, you get the SP.
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