Only 7 runners go to post for the 2013 Coral Eclipse, but its a high quality renewal, maybe lacking a stand out performer like Sea the Stars who won this in 2009, but the field includes four horses who have won a group 1 race, and another two who look capable of doing so. With no rain forecast overnight the ground looks set to be good to firm.
Al Kazeem comes into this on the back of 4 victories, the latest two, being in group one company. After beating Camelot easily at the Curragh he had a stiffer task in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot. One of tomorrow’s rivals, Mukhadram, made the running, but didn’t go to fast and when he kicked off the bend, he was always going to take a good bit of reeling in. James Doyle was one of the first jockeys in behind to be aware of the danger, and sent his mount after the leading just in time, he got to his quarters inside the final furlong and was always going to win thereafter. You could question the form a bit, the 2nd hadn’t previously looked a group one horse, and the 5th Miblish was only beaten 5 1/4l, and he hasn’t looked anywhere near group one class. Al Kazeem is clearly a very good colt, and can still progress again. He may well need to tomorrow though, as this race has some good strength in depth to it, and he did have a hard enough race at Ascot.
The Fugue also ran in that Ascot race, and she stayed on nicely in the straight, after being giving no chance by her jockey, who held her up to far back, for to long. It’s likely his instructions were to not give her a hard a race on her seasonal debut if possible, and she could come on a bit for the run. With a more prominent ride the last day she’d have gone closer, and while Al Kazeem could be marked up as well, The Fugue also has some solid form from last season to back up her claims. 10 furlongs on fast ground is her optimum conditions, and while the pace may not be overly strong again tomorrow, she will surely not be ridden as far out of her ground. The Fugue’s most impressive display last season was in the Nassau at Goodwood, which was run at a steady gallop, so while a slow pace would normally be against a hold up horse, I wouldn’t worry on that count with her, and she looks sure to go close.
Declaration of War started at a very short price in the Lockinge based on racecourse evidence. He ran as if not up to that standard, but at Ascot he showed form more in line with what the market suggested he was capable of. The Queen Ann was one of the worst renewals in a while this year, and tomorrows race looks a far better affair. Declaration of War did travel very well through the race though, and did well to pick up inside the final furlong after being blocked in his run. He didn’t beat much, as the second horse pulled extremely hard till past halfway, and the rest aren’t much good. It was a big step up in form terms though, and while the way he traveled suggests a mile is fine for him, he’d previously looked like he’d be better over further, so the trip tomorrow isn’t a negative.
Mars won a maiden in his only start at 2. This season he’s contested the Guineas, Derby and St James Palace Stakes. In all 3 races he’s looked like this trip will be his optimum. Yes he stayed on in the Derby but that was slowly run, and he was held up. Even a miler would be finishing under that set of circumstances. In his last run at Ascot he was beaten just under 3l by Dawn Approach and Toronado, staying on quite well after being impeded in his run. He should be at least a few pound better at this trip, and that may be enough to go very close. I’m still not convinced the 3 year colts are much better than last years dire crop however, and he’s also had a tough few races.
Mukhadram hadn’t looked capable of winning a good group one before Ascot, although he had shaped better than the result when winning at Sandown previously. Paul Hanagan got the pace right at Ascot, but at Sandown he also kicked for home off the last bend, and that’s a good bit further out than Ascot. The result of that maneuver is that he almost got much the best horse beaten, as he barely held on in the end. He could get a soft enough lead tomorrow, but he’ll surely need to if he’s to win, and I wouldn’t be sure that his jockey won’t repeat the kick for home, too soon tactic, even if he does.
Pastorius ran poorly in Singapore last time but had previously won a group one at Longchamp. The bare form of that is probably not quite good enough for this, but it wouldn’t leave him with much to find. He finished last season with a good run behind Frankel at Ascot, and he definitely has a chance. His odds of 11/1 look a little big, but his last run needs to be forgiven, and he has never ran on official good to firm ground, and that would put me off backing him.
Al Kazeem is improving, but his form is not cast iron, beating Camelot is something any horse who has pretensions to winning this race, should do easily, and there were a few average looking horses a little close for comfort last time. The Fugue ran in the same race, but she has claims to win this on a few runs last season too, and unlike a few of the others in this who have had a few hard races already, she comes here after an easy enough race at Ascot and should be at her best for this. That may well be enough and the 9/2 with the sponsors
3.50 Sandown Tips
2 pt Win The Fugue at 9/2 with Coral
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