Last years 3 year old colts were the worst in many a year. Camelot was prematurely christened a great, after beating a bunch of boats in last years Derby. The signs this year aren’t a lot better at this stage, with not many stars so far. At least the 2013 Epsom Derby looks a good bit higher on quality than last years, like last season, we have the 2000 Guineas winner attempting to double up in the Derby.
Dawn Approach won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, after an unbeaten 2 year season. You can’t knock his attitude or his record, but his CV is more impressive with a quick glance, than if you look more deeply. For a start he barely beat a good horse at 2, and its very debatable if he beat much of note in the 2000 Guineas either. Toronado flopped for whatever reason, and it was left to the 150/1 shot, Glory Awaits to chase Dawn Approach home. He wasn’t flattered either, if anything he went to fast, and the 5l Dawn Approach gained on him was in the slowest part of the race, so the winning margin may actually flatter him, rather than the 2nd. A 5l, all out beating of a 95 rated horse, who got beat in his 5 previous starts, none at higher than group 2 level, including a handicap off 87, hardly shouts star quality.
Dawn Approach is not bred for this trip of 12 furlongs either, that said though he beat horses for stamina, rather than speed at Newmarket, and on his racing style you’d be surprised if he wasn’t at least as good over 10 fur as 8. That gives him every chance of being effective over 12 furlongs. The problem he has is his form may not be good enough, and he may need to be better over 12 furlongs. He makes no appeal at a current price of 11/8.
Battle of Marengo is one of 5 from the Aidan O’Brien stable, and to tell the truth, if he’s their best I doubt they have a star. It wouldn’t be certain on breeding, but on running style he looks sure to get the trip. His form though is pretty ordinary, and unless he’s very idle and been holding plenty back, its hard to see him winning this. The fact he’s been declared in check pieces suggests his trainer thinks he has more to give, and coming form Ballydoyle you can’t rule him out.
Ruler of the World is another from Ballydoyle, and he’s unbeaten in two starts, a maiden at the Curragh in April, and a 6l win in a 4 runner race at Chester. He didn’t beat much that day, but you’d have to think he improved hugely on his maiden win, to my eye there’s more chance of him winning a Derby, than his better fancied stablemate. The negative is why doesn’t Joseph agree? It could be he hasn’t made the anticipated improvement since that run.
Ocovango is trained in France by Andre Fabre and is another unbeaten contender. After winning a listed race very easily, he stepped up to group 2 company last time, and while he was given a race, he was always going to win, and gave the impression had he gone faster, he’d have won further. He’s a fine looking horse and had a recent spin around Epsom too, and seemed to handle it fine. His form is not bad, the horse he beat easily in the listed race, was beaten just a short head in a group 2 on his next start. I’d make both the horses that finished 2nd to him, favourite over Battle Of Marengo’s last 2 immediate victims, and Ocovango also beat them with more style. He’s almost certain to appreciate the 12 furlongs and looks to have a real good chance.
Chopin travels from Germany, and is another lightly raced type. He won his maiden over 8 furlongs last November, and won his only start this season by 8l. That was a group 3 event over 8 1/2 furlongs, so he has to prove he’ll stay the trip. The signs are good though, his dam won over 13 furlongs, and winning over 8 furlongs as a 2 year old would suggest he’d want at least 10 at 3. The visual impression from his last win, would further back that up, he looked like winning 2 furlongs out, but not by 8l, and the further he went, the better he looked. The second horse went on to run a close 2nd in the German 2000, so the form might not be that bad, and with anticipated improvement for the step up in trip, he has more chance than the market seems to think.
Libertarian won what I thought was the strongest of the Derby Trials, the Dante at York, and looked for all the world that the extra few furlongs tomorrow would suit. Trading Leather didn’t do the form any harm by coming 3rd in the Irish 2000 Guineas, considering he went to fast, over to short a trip. He hasn’t got the potential star quality of some of the others, but it remains to be seen if any of those step up to the plate. His form is at least as good as Battle Of Marengo’s, yet he’s 3 times the price.
Mars has only had two runs lifetime and ran quite well in the 2000 Guineas, considering his lack of experience. While he’s by Galileo, his dam’s best trip was 6 furlongs, and on overall breeding would be far from certain to stay 12 furlongs. I’d have thought his 16/1 odds looked a bit big, but the fact he seems to be only the 3rd choice from Ballydoyle tempers confidence. They’ve got it wrong before though, so I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him each way.
Festive Cheer finished 3rd in a group 2 in France last time, he was just behind Park Reel, which was the horse Ocovango had beaten very easily on his previous start. He would need to improve a good bit to make any impression in this, and doesn’t appeal at a best price 20/1.
I think Dawn Approach is far to short, and like a few each way against him. Ocovango is only 8/1 with BetVictor, you can get a standout 10/1 with [adrotate banner=”48″], if your only having the one bet, take the BetVictor price, but as I’m having two, I prefer the Boylesports price. I also think Libertarian is a good bet each way at 14/1 with [adrotate banner=”75″]. Chopin is currently trading at 15.5 on [adrotate banner=”16″] and at that, I think a straight win bet is value.
Epsom Derby Tips
1 pt Each Way Ocovango at 10/1 with Boylesports
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1 pt Each Way Libertarian at 14/1 BOG with Bet Victor
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1 pt Win Chopin at 15.5 on Betfair
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Stakes are on a scale of 0-10. Further details can be found in Free Horse Racing Tips – Staking and Betting Bank size Recommendations
BOG stands for Best Odds Guaranteed, which means if you take a price and SP is better, you get the SP.
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