Investec Oaks – Tips and Preview – 4.00 Epsom

Tomorrow we have the first of the middle distance classics this year, with the running of the Investec Oaks at Epsom. Time will tell how good a race it is, but we have a few fillies with the potential to be top class, so hopefully we get a good winner. The going as I write this, is good to soft, soft in places, but with no further rain forecast, it likely won’t be any softer than good to soft by the 4.00 race time.

Tips for the Epsom Oaks

Secret Gesture heads the market for this following a bloodless victory in the Lingfield Oaks trial. She hacked up that day, but its very hard to put a level on the form. You can’t say it wasn’t top class form, but you couldn’t say it was either. The 2nd horse that day is very ordinary, with one win from 9 starts, and she pulled very hard too, that she still came 2nd doesn’t say much for the others. Yes the 3rd Whippy Cream came 3rd in a group 2 next time, but you can only assume she improved greatly, as in the Lingfield race she wasn’t far in front of a 73 rated horse. It seems reasonable to assume a 100 rated handicapper would have won the race easily, and as such Secret Gesture has a good bit to prove yet. Her price of 9/4 suggest she’s already proven herself top class.

Moth had two starts as a 2 year old, but it wasn’t until she reappeared in April that she broke her maiden tag. She was impressive that day, and took a big step up in class next time to contest the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. While not getting the best of runs around the 2 furlong pole, she wasn’t an unlucky loser, but ran very well to be 2l 3rd to Sky Lantern. She stayed on well that day, although her stable companion Snow Queen was closing even faster. On breeding you would estimate Moth’s optimal trip would be about 10-12 furlongs, so she has a very good chance of staying, and indeed is very likely to be better at further than a mile. Being trained by Aidan O’Brien is no disadvantage either, and while he has some concerns about her handling the track, mainly because she changed her legs going into the dip at Newmarket, she could equally learn a good bit from that experience of a top class race.

Liber Nauticus is a fine looking filly that’s unbeaten in two starts. She went off at 4/6 in the Musidora and while she won, she was far from impressive in beating an 85 and 79 rated horse. It should be noted the 2nd and 3rd are likely much better than those ratings suggest, but it was still far from top notch form. That said Liber Nauticus is almost certain to improve again, and the extra 3 furlongs and likely faster pace is a huge plus for her, as stamina, rather than speed looks her forte. I wouldn’t rule her out at all.

Banoffee is another nice looking filly and after being held up in her run at Chester last time, she did well to get up and win cosy. The leaders did kick for home soon enough, so her flying finish wasn’t as good as it looked. She did leave the impression she was much the best though, and has the scope to improve more. The form probably requires a good bit of improving on though.

Say also represents Aidan O’Brien, and while you can never totally rule out one of his, as they can improve hugely, this one will need to, and is short enough at a top price of 14/1. Talent battled on well to win a listed race last time, and should stay the trip, but that form is likely a good way short of what will be required. She’s only had 3 runs though so can improve. It’s hard to see anything else winning.

Considering she has still got a good bit to prove I think Secret Gesture is to short. Moth’s form has a much more solid look to it, she should improve again, and the extra trip is likely a plus too. I’d actually make Liber Nauticus a bigger danger than the favourite. I’d make Moth favourite, and she’s the bet  at 7/2 with

Last updated by Declan Meagher at September 11, 2018.