Irish 2000 Guineas – Tips and Preview – 3.20 Curragh

With two UK Classics already decided and a similar quota in France, this years Classic crop doesn’t look much better than last years. The first of the Irish Classic’s is tomorrow, but unfortunately the Irish 2000 Guineas, looks a pretty poor group one. The race mostly comprises horses, who weren’t up to the task at either Newmarket, or Longchamp, and a surprise runner who won a Derby trial.

Tips for the Irish 2000 Guineas

Magician is the horse in question. In four runs as a two year old, all he managed was a maiden win on heavy ground. He clearly improved over the winter, to be sent for the Dee Stakes at Chester, although that said, you wouldn’t generally need that good a horse to win that race. The previous four winners of the race, have managed a measly 2 wins between them, since they won it. This years race doesn’t look any better, yes Magician went away to win nicely enough, but the second horse is no good, indeed he got beaten in a 2 horse race today. That was 10 1/2 furlongs on good to soft ground, and while he doesn’t look short on speed, the difference between that test, and 8 furlongs on good to firm ground is huge. You don’t need me to tell you the punters that were taking 2/1 on Magician earlier today, are very unlikely to be winning punters. He may well win, but everything has a price, and 2/1 ain’t it. He’s surely more of a 5/1 shot.

Van Der Neer was second in last years Racing Post Trophy, and after winning a minor event at Lingfield, he finished 3rd in the English 2000 Guineas. He was beaten over 7l though, and finished 2 1/4l behind the 150/1 rag, Glory Awaits. He was also flattered to finish in front of Toronado, who stopped to nothing having tried to beat the winner. In all likelihood Dawn Approach beat an under par Toronado, and a bunch of listed/group 3 horses that day, and while tomorrow’s race is probably not a whole lot better, I still wouldn’t be overly keen on Van Der Neer at the current top price of 7/2.

Trading Leather finished behind Van Der Neer in the Racing Post, maybe he didn’t go on the soft ground. He reappeared in the Dante at York, and for strength in depth, I thought it was a much better race, than any of the Chester Derby Trials. Trading Leather is bred to improve for the 10 fur trip, but he ran a funny race. He was travelling well, then came off it and looked beaten, before staying on strongly, as if further again would suit. He was one of the last off the bridle though, and perhaps he was just a bit rusty on his first start of the season, and it took him awhile to hit his top stride. If that’s the case, then the drop back to a mile might not inconvenience him much, and his form is at least on a par with the favourite.

Havana Gold was very easily beaten by Toronado in the Craven, before running in the French 2000, he turned into the straight in second last, ahead of only Flying the Flag, another rival tomorrow. Havana Gold got a dream run up the rail, and actually hit the front inside the final furlong, that effort took its toil though, and he faded to finish 5th, while shaping like possibly the best horse in the race. If he made his run a bit more evenly, you’d think he would probably have won. He’s got beaten in his last three now though, and if he wins this, its likely a poor race. That is likely though, so I wouldn’t rule him out.

Gale Force Ten also ran in the French 2000 but while he ran well to come 4th, he was well positioned throughout, and had no excuses. He’s only won 2 of his 8 starts, and is exposed as ordinary. Flying the Flag is less exposed, and he stayed on to finish 9th, he should come on for the run, and I’d give him more chance than Gale Force Ten, yet he’s almost three times his price. A worry with tipping him, is the favourite will likely need a fast pace, and this one could be used as a pacemaker. If he was given a proper ride and paced correctly, this would be no disadvantage, however Ballydoyle pacemakers often go off at a pace so fast, Eddie Ahern would give them a speeding ticket. Witness the ride Seamie Heffernan gave this very horse in the National Stakes for confirmation.

George Vancouver won the Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita last season, and while he’s no great shakes, and ran poorly in the English 2000 Guineas, he has a place chance. His 16/1 odds look about right. First Cornerstone beat Flying The Flag in a group two at the Curragh last year, before coming 4th in the Racing Post, he shaped like the second best horse for much of the way however. He’s another who will probably be better over further, he was withdrawn from the Derrinstown Derby Trail a few weeks ago, but his form is almost as good as anything in the race and he must have a chance. There’s no real reason the faster ground will prove a problem.

Fort Knox was trained by Richard Hannon last season, and is now in the care of Johnny Murtagh, who rode him to victory at Leopardstown in April. He was given a bit to do, so did well to get up and beat Don’t Bother Me by almost 2l. He looked like he’d be capable of better, but he’ll need to be, as the second that day has subsequently been well beaten in the English 2000 Guineas, and was last of 4 in the Derrinstown.

I doubt you’d need to be a star to win this and at the prices I like Trading Leather each way at 8/1 with

Last updated by Declan Meagher at September 11, 2018.