With the 1000 and 2000 Guineas decided for this season, the focus moves onto the older milers tomorrow, with the running of the JLT Lockinge Stakes, a Group 1 race run over a mile at Newbury. Frankel started off his unbeaten 4 year old career in last years race. We have nothing of his caliber in tomorrows field, but a decent race is in store nonetheless.
Declaration of War is favourite for this, at a top price of 9/4 as I write this. Quite frankly it looks a little bit silly, and is based almost solely on his trainer, rather than his race record. Yes you have to account for the improvement Aidan O’Brien gets from his horses, but to come up with the 7/4 some bookies are going, you’d need to account for it, and then add a good bit more. After getting well beaten by Famous Name, he easily accounted for the 89 rated Ebazan, before having to battle a bit to beat the 98 rated Along Came Casey at Dundalk. Both those races were at 10 furlongs. He dropped back to 8 furlongs to beat the admirable, but limited, Bold Thady Quill, at Leopardstown. It’s not as if he sauntered to victory either, he was pushed right out from 1 1/2 furlongs down, for his 3 1/2l win. You would expect a few of the horses Declaration of War meets tomorrow to saunter clear of horses like Bold Thady Quill, and at the prices he makes no appeal at all.
Cityscape hit the big time with an easy victory at Meydan last March, and confirmed himself a decent group 1 horse, with placed efforts back in Europe. His two best shows, both came in defeat to Excelebration, one at Deauville on good ground, and the other in the QE2 at Ascot, when Excelebration hacked up. On his best form he’d go close in this, but to reproduce that he may need slightly slower ground than the expected good to firm. Roger Charlton has only had 3 places from his 18 runners the past fortnight.
Farhh only won one race last season, but he got no luck after winning that handicap at Thirsk. He didn’t get a run until to late, when 3rd to So You Think at Ascot, he was just pipped by Nathaniel in the Eclipse, before again running into Frankel at Goodwood, and York. When presented with a chance of getting the group 1 on the board, he again got beaten a head by Moonlight Cloud in France. While his best form is at 10 furlongs, it was only the lack of a strong gallop that got him beat at Longchamp, over tomorrows trip of a mile. He’s perfectly genuine, and there should be a good gallop in this. I’ve read concerns about his trainers current form, but that was always a bit far fetched, with a sample size of just 5 runners in the past 14 days, before today. Saeed Bin Suroor had 2 runners today, one was 5th, and the other won at 8/1. Considering this is a group one, there’s no reason Farhh won’t be fit and ready to go.
Beauty Parlour switched to Henry Cecil’s stable after winning the French Guineas and coming 2nd in the their Oaks. Her French form isn’t all that good though, she was always over hyped. She looked like she needed further than a mile when she raced at that trip, and is also bred for further. When she got beat in the French Oaks, it was more kicking to soon, than not staying. After joining Cecil, she flopped when favourite for the Sun Chariot on good ground, which was also the fastest ground she’s raced on. She has loads to prove here, I doubt a mile is her optimum trip, even if it is, her form is not in the same parish as Farhh’s, and the fast ground is also a huge question mark.
Fencing comes from last years outstanding 3 year old miler crop. I say outstanding, what I really mean, is useless. The only horse to win a group 1 over a mile from last years 2000 Guineas was Power, who won a similar sub standard Irish 2000. The St James Palace Stakes was even worse, the only winner that came out of that 16 runner field in 2012, was Gregorian, who won an egg and spoon race at Hamilton at 1/7. Fencing was only 6th and 13th in those races. Things improved somewhat when he made a winning reappearance at Ascot, but the opposition was a good bit below what he meets here.
Like Fencing, Trumpet Major was below the top, of a poor crop of 3 year olds, his best runs were early in the season when he won the Craven, and came 4th in the 2000 Guineas. He started this season with a win in a group 2 at Sandown, but that form is well below what will probably be required here, and its hard to see were the improvement will come from. Aljamaaher started off last season getting beat of 88 in a handicap, but despite only one win after that, he ran well in some decent races, he came 3rd to Trumpet Major at Goodwood, and while that form leaves him with something to find, he’s less exposed and probably has more chance of finding it.
I can’t have Declaration of War at the prices, yes he might improve, but he’ll need to, and quite a bit too. Cityscape and Farhh have the best form, but I think Farhh is a better horse, and is more likely to produce his best on fast ground. The mile trip shouldn’t be a problem, as the favourite will need a test at it too, so Ballydoyle will try to ensure a good pace. Farhh can lead if needed anyway. The bet has to be Farhh at 9/2 with
JLT Lockinge Tips – 3.50 Newbury
2 pt Win Farhh at 9/2 BOG with Betfred
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Stakes are on a scale of 0-10. Further details can be found in Free Horse Racing Tips – Staking and Betting Bank size Recommendations
BOG stands for Best Odds Guaranteed, which means if you take a price and SP is better, you get the SP.
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