Why a profit target option, and how does it work?
Simple really. I want everyone who joins to make money, and renew their subscription for another profit target. A set duration could mean joining for a month when things don’t go our way. I also have every confidence in my ability to meet the targets, and it means you won’t have to pay for any more advice until the profit is €2,000 to recommended stakes. I will total the profit/loss figures for each member and if you want to know the exact figures at any time just email me. The profit target is recorded against the best price a full 5 minutes after the email was sent, and if in the case of rules 4’s or place terms differing, when more than one bookie was going the advised price, the bookie I add first in the email will be used for the results.
Each members total starts at zero, and they receive the tips until the 80 point target has been reached. I will notify you when that happens, and you can then decide if you wish to re join for a new target. For the avoidance of doubt all tips on the day will be counted before a target is deemed to be reached. So if your total was +70 points and we had a winner that gave a 12 point profit, followed by a bet later that day that had a 3 point loss. The Profit target will not be deemed to have been met, even though we were briefly +82 points. The total at the end of the day, +79 points will the one that counts. It is easy to keep track of your own specific target on the Premium Advisory Results page. If for example the overall profit since launch is +20 points the morning your membership starts, then you are a member until that total hits +100 points or more.
Should you pick Profit Target or Set Membership Duration?
It really is up to you. Both prices are the similar as the average profit target since launch has lasted just under 3 months, and the price for that option is three times as much as the monthly sub, so which costs more overall depends on performance during your membership period. Overall since launch the profit target members would have paid more for their membership, as we have hit the target more often than once every three months, but it also gives you the peace of mind, that if we happen to have a poor period, your subscription will still see you up at least 80 points at the end of it. The monthly subscription option has the advantage of a lower initial fee if you want to try the service out, and then spreads the cost out more too.
In reality with the profit target you will likely make more than 80 points if backing all the tips at advised prices, as it’s very unlikely the day you hit the target, that it lands exactly on 80 points. If say your profit was +77 points, and there was one recommended bet that day, 2 points at 10/1. If that wins you will have made 97 points for your profit target, and when you consider you will get one days tips free, before your new membership starts, the profit target might appeal the most.
When does my membership start?
If you join before midnight, you will be a member for the following day and thus receive that days tips. Anytime after midnight your membership won’t start until the next day. If you pick the Saturday only option, your membership will start the Saturday after you sign up, again you will need to sign up by midnight on a Friday night, to be on the list for the following day, or else your membership will start the following Saturday.
Will there be tips everyday?
No. There will most days, but I will only advise a bet if I’m very confident that the horse has more chance of winning than the odds on offer. On some days there won’t be any horses who fit this criteria.
What information will my email/text have?
You will get an email/text with the time of the race, the name of the horse, and the price, as well as the bookies going the advised price, If more than 3, I’ll just list 3. I will add a note indicating what my minimum price is for a bet. This will be very helpful if you didn’t get a chance to back a horse when the email came through. The minimum price will be the price I required for the the bet to be a premium bet. If I make a horse a 4/1 shot, I would want 6/1 to be a premium bet. So if the horse is 7/1 I will advise at that price, but add 6/1 as the minimum price note. Obviously if the horse has come into 11/2 I would still consider it a good bet, just not quite good enough to recommend as a premium bet. Premium Member also receive any extra Festival Packages I do, and they have done extremely well in the past.
100% Transparency – No Gimmicks or Tricks to try to make results look better than they are
I will be posting full results on the website each day, listing each bet, and the price advised, after deducting any rule 4’s. I will also update daily a results counter which shows the main, profit/loss and +- points stats. Short term results will vary, as always in gambling, but I’m confident of making long term profits, and unlike most tipsters I don’t mind making my full results accessible.
How will you know your individual profit/loss since you joined?
I will keep the date each member joined, and the current overall profit/loss in a spreadsheet, which you can ask me for at any time, and your profit target will simply be the total when you joined +80 points. I will also notify you of the current total in your welcome email so it will be easy to keep track of.
How do I go about selecting horses to back?
I’m always reviewing races for horses I believe are better than the result, but that aren’t obvious to the general public. I’m looking for horses that I think will be under bet next time. I spend a few hours most days doing proper statistical analysis, no basic win strike rate stats that are mostly useless, which yields many profitable angles, and I also use sectional times to help me in reading a race. All of these give me angles to exploit, and only when I feel I have a reason that a horse may be under bet, will I price up the race. If the horse is sufficiently bigger than the odds I will recommended a bet. I don’t believe its enough anymore to just price up a race and back the ones that appear to be a good price, without having a reason why your right and the market is wrong.
Can Tipsters be trusted to deliver results?
In short many can’t, there are many scams out there, but you won’t find any of them offering a set profit figure, because they don’t make any profits. You can normally spot the real scams, they advertise their service after a good period with lines like, €10,000 profit in the last month, or this month last year we made €5,000. Nobody should care what they did in just this month before, or just the last month. A tipster should be judged on their overall record, and I intend to proof my tips to the Smart Betting Club, as well as list full results on the website.
Is the price good value?
I think it is very good value, and over the four years of the service I have certainly made far more for my members, than I have made in fees. The fee is my way of getting a bet on with bookmakers and means I get good compensation for all the hours that go into coming up with each days selections, and my members still make a very healthy profit themselves once the target is reached. The advantage of this price instead of a cheaper one, is that my members should have no trouble getting the advised prices, were as free or very cheap services, even if they are good like Hugh Taylor on ATR, suffer from the prices going as soon as the tips go up. He has thousands of followers all trying to get on.
Will it be easy to get the stakes on?
The stakes will be fixed according to the price advised at as follows.
14/1+: 1 point win or each way. 11/4 to 10/3: 5 point win
15/2 to 12/1: 2 points win or each way 9/4 to 5/2: 6 point win
5/1 to 7/1: 3 points win or each way. 7/4 to 2/1: 7 point win
7/2 to 9/2: 4 point win or each way. Under 7/4: 8 point win
As you can see most people with non restricted bookie accounts should have no problem with the stakes. An 11/2 shot, which is the average price my Naps were advised at, will require a stake of €75, while a 16/1 shot will be just €25. Only horses under 7/4 will require a €200 stake. Ideally when I feel a bet has a bigger edge than normal, a bigger bet would be in order, but I’m mindful of the fact not everyone will be able to get the extra amount on, hence the rigid system. An each way bet will only be advised if I also think the win part of the bet is a good bet, there won’t be any each way bets with the sole purpose of taking advantage of what the bookies call bad each way races.
What size betting bank should I have?
The size of your bank depends on your edge and the prices your backing at. As you can see from my stakes above they are set to return around 20 points per bet, which differs form the Nap of the Day, which tend to be to return about 12 points. The reason for the difference is this staking plan allows correct staking at a bigger range of prices. That means 2 points on at 9/1, which returns 20 points, and 4 points at 4/1, which also returns 20. Thus according to the Kelly Criterion for maximizing profits with a 17% edge, a bank of 100 points would be optimum. So you would need a €2,500 bank to stake the recommended €25 a point. I’m confident that the Premium Service will make a 17%+ROI long term, but to be safe I’m going to recommend you have a bank of 140 points at all times.
This means to follow the €25 a point stakes, you would need a bank of €3,500. If you only have a bank of €2,100 then your stake per point would be €15. Its simply current betting bank/140= Stake per point. As your bank increases, so will your stake per point, if your bank drops, and you can’t replenish the funds, then your stake per point should drop too. So if your current betting bank is €3,500 you would stake €75, when I recommend a 3 point bet. If though your bank dropped to €3,000, you would only stake €64.2 on the same 3 point bet. That was got by dividing 3000 by 140 to get 21.42, and that multiplied by the stake of 3 points to get 64.2. Obviously you can round figures to get easier stakes per point. Read my articles on Betting Bank and Bankroll Management, and Staking Plans – Why Kelly Criterion is better than Level Stakes for further reading.
So even if your bank isn’t big enough for €25 a point, you can still join the service and do very well. Even at €10 a point, you would make €800 if backing all the bets at advised prices, by the time the 80 point profit target has been reached.
How long will it take to reach the profit target?
As always in gambling nothing is certain, and it will vary, but if say we had a 20% ROI, with 15 bets a week at an average price of 6/1, then the average stake would be 3 points, with an average profit of 0.6 points per bet. That would mean a profit of 9 points, or €225 on average per week, so the target would take roughly 9 weeks to hit. If the ROI was higher it would be hit quicker, or if we have more bets with the same ROI. Likewise less bets, and a lower ROI would mean it takes longer to hit the target. The good news is your subscription will not end until we do.
Will the tips be on the flat or over jumps?
Almost all of the tips will be on the flat, and the majority will be for races in the UK, although some will be in Ireland. Apart from my statistical research, I have done detailed research using sectional times, and the effect pace has on performance, and the all weather meetings during the winter provide many profitable opportunities.
No sharing of the tips
The advice is for your own use and sharing it wouldn’t be fair on the other members, and I reserve the right to cancel anyone’s membership, if I suspect they are sharing the tips in any form.
If you have any problems, questions or feedback about my Premium Advisory Service you can email me on firstname.lastname@example.org