Preview and Tips samples from past Festivals.

Below is today’s analysis and tips. I’ve listed the bets (highlighted in bold) under each race along with the  min price, which is the price I needed to advise the bet. if you want a few extra bets on the day, it’s okay to take a little under that price. For horses I’m interested in that aren’t currently over the min price with at least two bookmakers bookmaker, I’ve listed the min price plus the stake they would be if they hit the min price later. The min price is always based on the win part of the bet, so even if I advise each way it’s fine to back the horse win only above that price. Prices are in decimal form, so 10.0 is 9/1, 2.5 is 6/4 etc.. I’ve left all my notes in even if the horse has shortened a good bit since I wrote it out, as it might still be of interest. I need at least two bookies  I quote form going the min price for me to recommend it as a bet, so some horses below are actually over the min price with a few bookies, but not two I quote from, which is why they aren’t listed as an official bet.

13:05 Wolverhampton – Dark Alliance (min price 8.5, 2 PT Win) won four races this year, the first in early January off a mark of 67, and the fourth at the end of March off 78. Three of those wins came at Wolverhampton, and after losing his form afterwards he is back down to a perch of just 68 today. On the face of it a ninth place finish at Kempton last time wasn’t great,  but he was trapped on the outside early on, a bump from another rival wound him up, and he ended up pulling very hard, but still traveled well into the straight, before making some late ground without getting a hard time. That run suggested he was running into form, and he’s four pounds lower today. He has never done much at Kempton, so going back to Wolverhampton is another plus here. There looks to be a good bit of pace in this, which will suit, and he has a good draw in two, so it would be no surprise at all if he bounced back to winning form. He opened up at 11.0 when prices came in for this on Monday, but is into 6.0 now, but a little bigger on the exchanges, so he might still drift back out to the min price at some stage.
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13:40 Wolverhampton – False ID has won two of his last four runs, both times at Newcastle, and on bare form at least, he has run below that level at Wolverhampton and Lingfield in the other two. The Newcastle form is strong, he was slowly into stride, as is normal for him, but made ground travelling strongly and won by just under a length in a decent time. Newcastle might suit him best, but he did win at Wolverhampton earlier in the year, and had the excuse of a very slow break, and had to come very wide, when only fifth here recently. At Lingfield last time he wasn’t that slow away, but was dropped in off what wasn’t a great pace, and ran into trouble in the straight when staying on well up the inside, which is rarely the place to be, suggesting he was still in form. A fast pace is far from certain here, but if he breaks okay for him, and gets a good pace to aim at, he still looks handicapped to win another one off just three pounds higher than Newcastle.

At a big price Lone Voice is worth a look. He got a harsh mark of 63 after three maiden runs, and didn’t show much in his first four handicap starts either, but although only eight of twelve at Lingfield last time, he had to do plenty of running to get across from his high draw, and sat close to a strong pace. After making a brief challenge on the home bend he faded in the final furlong. He gets to run off four pounds lower today with his mark now down to 47, and with his trainers horses running well, he has more chance than odds of 26.0 suggest.

2 PT Win False ID at 11.0 with Bet 365 (min price 10.0)
1 PT Win Lone Voice at 26.0 with Bet 365, William Hill, Paddy Power +more (min price 21.0)
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14:15 Wolverhampton – Champagne Rules (min price 7.3, 3 PT Win) last two wins came late last year, both over twelve furlongs. He was second over today’s course and distance in late October, before disappointing at Nottingham. He was dropped a furlong in trip to just eight and a half furlongs on his penultimate start, and while he was at a tactical advantage in making the running at a steady gallop, for a horse that stays much further, it was hardly his ideal conditions, yet he looked certain to win when kicking clear on the bend, but threw the race away hanging across the track to the stands rail in the straight, with today’s rival Mossy Lodge getting up to beat him a length. Champagne Rules went like still in form at Southwell last time, when back over a mile he faded late after going a little quick, over a trip that’s surely a bit short for him. This trip should suit better, he doesn’t need to lead, and indeed taking a lead here would probably be better, and off just one pound higher for that Wolverhampton second he looks to have a solid chance. He is currently just under the min price on the exchanges so there’s a good chance he’ll hit it later.
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16:25 Wolverhampton – Whenapoet is more exposed than one or two of these, but he put up his best effort yet last time over a furlong further at this track, and shaped like he could do better again if ridden with slightly more restraint. He looked a winner off the bend that day, but had gone a little quick and got nailed close home. There is a good chance he’ll get the lead without having to do too much today, and the furlong shorter trip is a small plus too. Fightwithme is favourite, but he hasn’t progressed from a promising debut in two starts since, and while connections have to be respected, he doesn’t have the profile of an obvious potential big improver.

2 PT Win Whenapoet at 7.5 with Bet 365, Paddy Power, William Hill +more (min price 7.5)
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12:50 Kempton – Thomas Darby won his first two starts, showing some greenness in the process, before going down by a head to Didtheyleaveuoutto at Ascot last time. It turned into a bit of a sprint over the last two, but while he got first run on the winner, he also battled back really well when passed, and looked like he’d get back up if the race went on for another 50 yards, suggesting a faster pace would really suit him. The experience should really help too, and of the pair he has more scope to do better, he is also three pounds better off, so I didn’t understand why Didtheyleaveuoutto was put in as favourite initially. The Big Bite has won both his hurdles starts, but it’s hard to put a figure on the form, and the ground will be much faster here, so he has a good bit to prove.

5 PT Win Thomas Darby at 4.0 with Unibet (min price 3.75) 
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13:55 Kempton – This looks a very good grade one novice chase. Santini is entitled to be favourite after an impressive chasing debut at Newbury,  but Topofthegame did remarkably well to come second in a decent novice at Exeter, after ducking away when the tapes went up, and not setting off after the others until he was around twenty lengths behind. Once a horse gives trouble at the start you would always worry about a repeat, but this looked different to the normal recalcitrant behavior at the start, when perennial slow starters usually gives signs they have no interest in racing well before the tapes go up. Topofthegame (min price 6.0, 3 PT Win)  walked in fine and just seems to get a fright as the tape went up. He may not have lined up that close before. He fell on his chase debut last year, but then did very well back over hurdles, ending up coming second in the Coral off a mark of 150, despite the trip looking on the short side. A steady enough early pace at Exeter gave him a chance to catch the others up, but equally that trip of two miles and three furlongs, was way too short for him, and this three miles is much more up his alley. He looks like a chaser, his hurdles form is very good, and if he jumps off fine today, he should give Santini plenty to think about. Topofthegame is currently over the min price on exchanges and with one bookie I don’t quote from, but other bets are starting to come in in price, so I can’t wait for him to hit it with the required two bookies.

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15:05 Kempton – The King George is tricky, with  question marks about the main contenders. Might Bite (min price 5.0, 4 PT Win) and Native River are the best horses, but the trip and track and very unlikely to see Native River at his best, while Might Bite needs to bounce back from a very poor run at Haydock, when he stopped like a horse with an issue. The ‘he was afraid of the big fences’ excuse trotted out by his trainer was laughable even by connections normal bullshit standards, and the fact he used that suggests there was no fitness issues to explain his performance. He wasn’t exactly impressive when winning this last year either, but if he’s in the same form as when he traveled like a dream in the Gold Cup until his stamina ran out on soft ground in a very attritional race, or on a few of his novice runs, including over this course and distance, he could easily hack up in this, so good has he looked. He does need to bounce back but his price now looks to have drifted too much. Thistlecrack won this two years ago, but the form was very poor for a King George, and he’s very unlikely to be as good after all his issues. I’d use his proximity in the Betfair chase as a reason to think the form may not be all that great, and Bristol De Mai does appear to be better there than elsewhere, and it may be he is trained for that race more than the other main contenders too. Politologue wasn’t quite top class over two miles, and needs to not only stay three miles now, but to be better over it. Waiting Patiently could be very good, but the way he travels over shorter wouldn’t give you the impression he wants further, but if he does get the trip he could be star. Might Bite is currently 5.0 with a few bookies, but only 1 I quote from.

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13:25 Wincanton – Black Mischief (min price 6.6, 3 PT Win) won over this trip at Kempton back in April, and looks ready for a return to this trip after getting up late at Haydock last time. The pace wasn’t strong, and he was outpaced when they quickened, before coming home very strongly to win having been matched at 250 in running. A six pounds rise for the bare form is fair, but he looked like he’d have much more to come given a greater stamina test, and with a few horses in this who like to get on with it, he should get that here.

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14:00 Limerick –  I certainly wouldn’t be against taking Getabird on at 1.5 in this, without really liking any of the others enough to advise a bet on them. Getabird looked decent last season, but seemed exposed as no star, and the fact his trainer would run him twice at Punchestown suggests he doesn’t think he’s all that either. He won well enough on his chase debut without screaming natural, and while he’s the most likely winner of a weak grade one, I doubt it would take much to go wrong to get him beat.

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13:10 Leopardstown – Coeur Sublime is four pounds worse off with Chief Justice, having got beaten in a driving finish last time with no real excuses, but he is less exposed, so the market is probably right in having him a slight favorite for this.

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13:45 Leopardstown –  Warnaq (min price 6.0, 3 PT Win) won with a good bit more in hand than the two and a half  length margin at Navan last time. She made the running at a good pace and shot clear before the second last, only getting closed down when the race was over. She won off a mark of 79 on her penultimate start on the flat, and still looks to have plenty of scope to do better than her new hurdle mark of 113.
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14:20 Leopardstown – Le Richebourg (min price 6.0, 3 PT Win) had some decent hurdle form, and already looks a better chaser. He clearly stays two and a half mile’s well, but traveled strongly enough over that distance last time to suggest he won’t lack the pace for the few furlongs shorter trip today. That second in the Drinmore is strong form, and he might not need to improve an awful lot to go close in what looks a weak edition of this race. Mengli Khan was third in last years Supreme but that looked a well below par renewal, with plenty of decent horses, but no stars. He made a winning debut over fences, but his price of just 2.38 looks skinny, and while I’d want a bit bigger than the current 5.0 available on Le Richebourg to advise a bet, he is the one I’d have a bit shorter than current odds.
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27th December 2018

Below is today’s analysis and tips. I’ve listed the official bets (highlighted in bold) under each race along with the  min price, which is the price I needed to advise the bet. if you want a few extra bets on the day, it’s okay to take a little under that price. For horses I’m interested in that aren’t currently over the min price with at least two bookmakers, I’ve listed the min price plus the stake they would be if they hit the min price later, these obviously won’t count in official results. The min price is always based on the win part of the bet, so even if I advise each way it’s fine to back the horse win only above that price. Prices are in decimal form, so 10.0 is 9/1, 2.5 is 6/4 etc.. I’ve left all my notes in even if the horse has shortened a good bit since I wrote it out, as it might still be of interest. There’s 6 official bets today, but plenty of others that are close to the min price currently, with some of them over the min price on the exchanges and others over the min price with one or two bookies, but not two I quote from, so read all the advice and best of luck for a busy day.

13:05 Chepstow – Doitforthevillage (min price 8.7, 2 PT Win) was sixth in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham at Cheltenham back in March, and was a good bit better than the bare result, as he had to swerve around a faller at the second fence, before having to do similar at the third last. He followed that up with a fourth in a valuable handicap at Aintree. He ran off 139 for both those starts, so looks well treated off 133 here. He’s had two starts this season, running well enough at Cheltenham before a late mistake, while last time he ran well to come third at Newbury, while giving the impression the run may still have been slightly needed. He took two runs to hit form last season after a summer break, winning on his third start, and is now two pounds lower for his third start back this season.
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14:10 Chepstow – Virginia Chick (min price 9.5, 2 PT Win) was very progressive last season, winning four times, over trips ranging from two mile and one, to three miles. If his reappearence fourth at Newbury is anything to go by he is in for another good season, as after travelling well, if a little free, he made smooth progress in the straight to get into a challenging position, before fading from the second last. He ran like the run was needed, but that was a decent race too, so if he comes on for the run at all he has a solid chance in this. Truckers Lodge was visually very impressive at Chepstow last time, but they finished in slow motion which would have helped make him look better than he is. It was still an easy win but he is up thirteen pounds here.
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14:50 Chepstow – Vintage Clouds (min price 12.0, 2 PT EW) is a very consistent handicap chaser, with numerous decent efforts in big handicaps. He was fourth in this last year off a mark off 140, and although he is off 146 today, he looks a better horse now. He was third at Cheltenham despite shaping like the three miles and one furlong trip was too short for him, getting outpaced and looking set to drop away, but staying on well for third. He was then third in the Scottish National, and won over three miles and two on his seasonal return, looking to idle when he hit the front on the run in. The ground for his last two efforts was good, which while he goes on it fine, most of his better efforts are with some cut, and this trip and softer ground could be his optimal conditions.
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13:55 Kempton – Momella is a short price for this at 2.5, and while her form chance is obvious, she won off 134 at Cheltenham last December, and showed improved form to come fourth at Aintree in a grade one, both of those were over two and a half miles and she does need to prove she stays this trip. She was still in contention when falling two out in a grade two at Newbury on her return, that was over three miles, but I didn’t think she was going to trouble the winner at the time, and she wasn’t gaining much on the leader at the time either, despite being pushed along having traveled well to three out. Saint Ladylime made a promising return from a break at Southwell, but both her form and action suggest softer ground suits better.

Chili Filli (min price 6.6, 3 PT Win) was a very impressive winner on her handicap debut last time, and while a strong pace combined with the others stopping a bit in the straight means the visual impression might flatter her somewhat, her strength at the finish of that very well run two miles and five race, suggests this step up to three miles is likely to be right up her street. She is up eleven pounds for that, but is totally unexposed and there should be more to come.
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15:05 Kempton – Adrien Du Pont  (min price 8.0, 3 PT Win) made his handicap chase debut on his seasonal reappearence in a valuable race at Ascot, and shaped like more than capable off his rating of 144. He traveled very well held up, and made good progress to get into a challenging position in the straight, and was only just over two lengths down when he made a bad mistake at the last. That race was on fast ground, but it was soft when he was only seventh at Newbury last time, but he shaped miles better than the result, but was just too free, tanking through the race, and pulled his way from the rear to hit the front on the last bend. He predictably faded from two out, but went like a well handicapped horse again. He needs to settle better if he’s to get this trip, but the better ground should be a big help, and if he does settle, he has a big chance.
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13:15 Leopardstown – Footpad was clearly a very good novice last season, but equally he was presented with the Arkle by some terrible rides on the other fancied horses, and the horse that came second to him at Punchestown went off at 91 on the exchanges, with his main rivals disappointing. He didn’t jump well on his comeback at Naas and was beaten when falling at the last. Castlegrace Paddy has run two poor races in his career so far, both at Punchestown, and both on decent ground. He did pull too hard on the latest of those, when behind Footpad back in April, so that’s a reasonable excuse for that, and providing he is as effective on better ground, then he looks to hold a decent chance here, after hacking up in the race Great Field fell in at Cork on his reappearence. The sound pace suited him, and he should get another good gallop here. He likely has more to find to win, but is still unexposed so that’s entirely possible.

2 PT Win Castlegrace Paddy at 13.0 with Paddy Power, Betvictor, William Hill +more (min price 11.5)
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15:00 Leopardstown – Solomn Grundy looks thrown in here off the same mark as when second to De Name Escapes Me at Navan last time. That was Solomn Grundy’s first start for Henry De Bromhead, and he traveled well throughout, before hitting the front at the last, only getting passed close home The winner had more in hand than the half length margin, as he was only pushed out, but he meets Solomn Grundy on fourteen pounds worse terms here. De Name Escapes Me was running off a chase mark of just 119 there, having improved over hurdles since his previous chase run, including coming second off 138 on his previous start, and he still looks well handicapped off 133 here, but equally that just goes to show how well in Solomn Grundy looks off the same mark as when going down to a horse that was thrown in, with the pair nine lengths clear of the third. The extra trip should be fine for Solomn Grundy as although he didn’t look the strongest stayer over around three miles in the past, he had a wind op since then, and has shown improved form too, so it’s likely that’s what was holding him back.

2 PT EW Solomn Grundy at 10.0 with Ladbrokes, Betfairsportsbook (min price 8.0)
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13:25 Wolverhampton – Castlerea Tess was racing off a mark of 60 when she made the running at a good pace, and looked a winner when kicking on off the final bend over today’s course and distance in early October, but she had done too much too soon, and faded in the final half furlong to come fifth. She had no chance next time after nearly ending up on the floor after anticipating the start, while last time she was dropped in from her high draw, and although finishing last, she wasn’t beaten that far, and wasn’t given too hard a time either, after being weak in the market. Her best from is when ridden prominently and while her draw in ten isn’t great here either, there is no real front runners on her inside and she could easily get across to lead without doing too much, and if she does, then she looks well handicapped now off just 53.

Peachey Carnehan (min price 6.2, 3 PT Win) bounced back to form at Newcastle last time, getting up late to score by half a length. I think the form is strong enough for the grade, as the second looked back on the good mark, while the third was gambled on having fallen in the weights running over the wrong trip. The time figure was good too, so he still looks well treated off just three pounds higher here at a track he’s won twice at.

1 PT Win Castlerea Tess at 15.0 with Bet 365, Coral, Paddy Power +more (min price 10.0)
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14:35 Wolverhampton – Time to Reason started this season off a mark of 85, but was down to just 64 when dropping to five furlongs here last time. The drop in trip was no issue and he traveled well held up, but was given a bit too much to do off what was only an even pace, so he did really well to close down Jorvik Prince in the straight, only beaten a neck and a head at the line. The winner that day re-opposes here but with other pace in the line up he may be forced into going quicker, which will suit Time To Reason. It will also suit Royal Mezyan (min price 5.9, 3 PT Win) who was also held up that day, and stayed on well into second. He too has fallen a good bit in the weights this year, and looks ready to take advantage. Mansfield flew home having had to wait for a run last time, and while he may have looked unlucky to the eye, the opposite is true as the leaders were stopping and being blocked in probably helped him run closer to optimal pace.

3 PT Win Time To Reason at 6.5 with Bet 365 (min price 5.5)
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15:10 Wolverhampton – Universal Command (min price 6.8, 3 PT Win) was an impressive winner over this course and distance on his penultimate start, but were as the pace was strong that day, and he kicked for home soon enough to further draw out his stamina, last time he was dropped in off a slow pace at Kempton, and was only getting going when the race was over. You would expect him to be ridden prominently here from a draw in one.

Guvenor’s Choice (min price 14.0, 1 PT Win) finished second in that Kempton race, but he did benefit from leading off a steady pace. That said he may again get the lead today without doing too much, and he was better than the result last time, when he made ground very wide on the bend, before his run flattened out in the final furlong, He also won over Christmas here last year.

Blistering Bob was stayed on well having being given far too much to do off a steady gallop when fifth over this course and distance on his penultimate start, before pulling too hard when upped in trip last time. He’s now three pounds lower than for that promising run, and if he gets a pace to aim at, he might be able to drop in from his draw and come with a late challenge.

Claire Underwood won on her handicap debut back in June at Ripon, but wasn’t seen again until coming a half length second to Kasar over this course and distance in early December. She was pushed very wide on the bend so looked unlucky not to win, and has the potential to do better. She looks to stay this trip well so a good pace would be a plus.

1 PT Win Blistering Bob at 26.0 with William Hill, Betvictor (min price 19.0)
3 PT Win Claire Underwood at 7.5 with William Hill, Ladbrokes, Betvictor +more (min price 7.5)
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