The Princess of Wales Stakes normally brings together some of the top 10 furlong horses in the world. This year it would be hard to accuse any of the runners of that accolade. Its unfortunate that the likes of Farhh miss the race, he would surely beat this lot, and Cirrus Des Aigles would lap them. Okay maybe not quite, but they’d need to improve quite a bit to trouble him. Before betting on any race at Royal Ascot make sure you check out all the great Ascot Specials the bookies have this week.
Al Kazeem heads the market and he is lightly raced for a 5 year old. He’s won his last three now, including a cosy victory over Camelot last time. He went into that race after beating Thomas Chippendale quite easily at Sandown, while that form marked him down as a potential group one winner, it wouldn’t entitle him to be a top price of 5/2 tomorrow. That price come about because he beat Camelot. I backed Al Kazeem that day, but it wasn’t because I thought he was a top notch group one horse, it was more I thought he’d only need to be an average one to take care of Camelot. He traveled well and quickened when asked, he could be improving, and I see no reason why he shouldn’t confirm the form tomorrow, but his price looks about right to me at the moment.
Camelot has to be one of the most hyped horses of all time, many fell for the he’s a great horse line after his Derby win last year, but lets face facts, he beat a bunch of bumper horses at Epsom, and the 3 year colts were the worst crop in a long time last season. Aidan O’Brien is still claiming he’s the best he’s trained, but frankly I find that talk quite patronizing, and while he has a chance in a poor renewal tomorrow, he’d need to beat these 10l to go anyway towards justifying those claims. Yes Camelot won 3 group ones last season, but the horses who chased him home haven’t won a race between them since, and it’s not as if he hacked all over them either. Some see his runs in the Arc, Leger and Tattersalls as disappointing, I see a horse who got very lucky to win 3 group ones, and got found out against better horses. His price for this looks to short as I really can’t see where he’d going to find the improvement from. Mind you I’ve said that, and been wrong about Aidan’s horses before. The difference this time is the market seems to think Camelot only needs to bounce back to his best, that’s surely not true. He likely ran as good as he ever did last time, and the market is still over rating his Classic form.
Maxios is having his first run outside France tomorrow. He seems an improved horse this season, as he didn’t look a group one animal last year. After winning a group 2, he came 2nd to Pastorius in a group 1 over 10 1/2 furlongs, and then beat Planteur in a group one over 9 furlongs last time. He only just got up that day, and I think the form of his second to Pastorius was stronger, in what was a deeper race overall. I still think he’d probably need to improve on that to beat Al Kazeem, and he hasn’t run on good to firm before either. All told his price looks about right.
The Fugue had 6 runs last season, 3 over 10 furlongs and 3 over 12. She ran consistently well in all of them, but its over 10 furlongs that she looks at her best. After winning the Nassau Stakes comfortably at Goodwood her stamina ran out close home in the Yorkshire Oaks. The Fugue then traveled to Santa Anita but didn’t get much of a run when 3rd in the Filly and Mare turf. Her form is as good as anything in this race, and a fast run 10 furlongs on decent ground is her optimum conditions. She should get those tomorrow, and the only concern is her trainer saying she has taken a while to come to herself this year. John Gosden is far to good a trainer, to risk messing up her season by running her not ready in this, and I suspect she’ll be pretty close to concert pitch. There are far easier options for mares like her these days, and there’d be no reason to run her in this, if he didn’t think she could win.
Saint Baudolino was placed in last years French Derby and the Grand Prix De Paris last season, but there’s nothing spectacular about finishing behind Imperial Monarch and he needs to improve. Red Cadeaux came second in the Dubai World Cup, but the fact this admirable horse, was able to do that over a trip well short of his best, shows how poor that race has become. Mukhadram is progressive and beat Main Sequence last time. An all out 1/2l beating of that horse is far removed from the required standard here, but I got the impression he won despite the ride, rather than because of it. Paul Hanagan kicked on a good way out, and after having the second well beaten 2 furlongs down he only just held on. He needs to leave that form behind but probably has more chance to progress than the other 16/1 shots.
I think The Fugue’s form is about on a par with Al Kazeem, when we add in the mares allowance. Al Kazeem may have slightly more upside to his rating, but he’s also a good bit shorter in price. Under her ideal conditions The Fugue looks overpriced at 6/1 with
Princess of Wales Tips
2 pt win The Fugue at 6/1 BOG with Stan James
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Stakes are on a scale of 0-10. Further details can be found in Free Horse Racing Tips – Staking and Betting Bank size Recommendations
BOG stands for Best Odds Guaranteed, which means if you take a price and SP is better, you get the SP.
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