With all the major jumps festivals, over for the year, its time for the flat season to take center stage, and it does so tomorrow, with the first classic of the season, the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The going is currently good to firm, with just showery rain forecast, presumably this shouldn’t amount to much, and the ground will likely be on the fast side come 3.50 tomorrow.
Dawn Approach has been favourite for this all winter, after winning all six of his juvenile starts. The first of those was way back in March, at the Curragh, and its unusual for such an early 2yo to end up top of the pile. That’s exactly what he did, on official ratings in any case. He was also awarded a racing post rating of 123, for both his win in the National Stakes at the Curragh, and his win in the Dewhurst, which completed his 6 for 6, for the year. The problem I have with that rating, is he beat very weak fields in both races. In the National Stakes Seamie Heffernan did what Aidan O’Brien pacemakers often do, went off miles to fast, and the result was a quite attritional race, which suited Dawn Approach, as if there’s anything we learned from his races, its that, he isn’t very fast, all his wins were grinding victories, many after looking like he’d struggle at stages.
His attitude is commendable, but in that National Stakes win, the 2nd horse was, Designs of Rome, who was beaten in a handicap on his previous start, quite how the RP got a 123 rating, I’ve no idea. A very optimistic assessment I’d suggest. Next time in the Dewhurst Dawn Approach went off 30/100, not because he looked a superstar, more because it looked a terrible renewal, of what is often Europe’s best 2yo race. The fact that his stable companion got him off the bridle over 2 furlongs out, and Dawn Approach didn’t really gain any ground for 1/2 furlong, before staying on best, suggests this trip will be fine for him, probably a plus. It also suggests he’ll need to improve, as if there isn’t at least 50, 3 year old’s, that can beat Leitir Mor by more than 2 3/4l, then I’d suggest its another poor year. With horses that keep winning it could be presumed they might have extra in hand, and just don’t do a lot in front, I don’t think that’s the case here, as Dawn Approach doesn’t seem to do much in behind either, often winning by further than looked likely a furlong down.
In fact it was Dawn Approach’s Coventry win that looks like his strongest bit of form to me, and on that run, with normal improvement from 2 to 3, then he’d have a good chance. He never had the sort of chance, quotes of under 5/4 earlier in the week, suggested he had. You would also have to question, whether a horse that was forward enough to win in March as a 2 year old, could reasonable be expected to improve the average amount, from 2 to 3.
When Toronado won his maiden, I told my brother I thought he was the best 2 year old I’d seen so far, and I didn’t see any reason to change my mind for the rest of the year. After that victory he won a minor race at Ascot, and then beat what I regarded as a very good juvenile in Dundonnell, at Doncastor. He got an easy lead that day, which sometimes means the winner was flattered, but not in this case, as he’s much the stronger stayer of the two, and did well to beat Dundonnell, off a pace that wouldn’t have suited him. That was it for the year and he reappeared in the Craven, were he again came up against Dundonnell. Toronado again made all, and it was Havana Gold to chase him home. I say chase, he was actually hammered, with Toronado coming home an easy 4l vicotor. The 2nd is not a bad horse, and while Dundonnell is probably going to end up a sprinter, the form is still strong. I’d certainly back Havana Gold to beat either of the horses, that gave Dawn Approach far more to do, in his two group one victories. Toronado is a fine looking horse and has an awful lot going for him here.
Cristoforo Colombo was only beaten 1l by Dawn Approach in the Coventry, before disappointing a bit on soft ground. He bounced back with a good run in the Middle Park, staying on okay, without ever looking a threat. Hes not guaranteed to stay on breeding, his dam was a 6 furlong sprinter, but he shaped like he wanted further than 6 furlongs, so should be fine. He doesn’t have the look of a potential star, but then not many in this do, so he has his chance.
Garswood didn’t race over further than 6 furlongs last year, and seemed to improve a good bit when winning the Free Handicap, off a rating of 106. The step up in trip looked to suit, and although its not certain on breeding, he should stay this mile. This is a much better race though, and you’d imagine he needs to improve again. He looks a nice scopey sort, so that’s not impossible, and he seemed to prick his ears and idle when he hit the front last time, so may be better than the bare margin.
Mars won his maiden, and only start thus far, at Dundalk last July. He was talked up as the Ballydoyle Derby horse after that, but has clearly had problems not to have raced since. While his reappearance in this, suggests he’s been pleasing them at home, the fact Joseph doesn’t ride, probably means he hasn’t been ripping up any trees. That maiden he won was pretty poor too, the 2nd is okay, but the 3rd couldn’t win a handicap off 66 last time. If Mars is going to be top class, it will surely be over further.
George Vancouver also represents the Ballydoyle team, and he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, at the end of last season, that wouldn’t generally be much of a race, and although he had Dundonnell behind in 4th, that one had a poor trip. George Vancouver had been beaten in his 3 previous starts, and was looking pretty exposed. he could run well, but surely a place is his best hope.
Van Der Neer was 2nd in the Racing Post trophy, but he was beaten easily, and made a meal out of winning a poor event at Lingfield on his comeback. He’d need to find a good bit of improvement on that, while Moohaajim has little chance of staying. In both his last two runs, he’s traveled much the best, and got beat, maybe he needed the run on his step up to 7 furlongs last time, but i’d say its far more likely he’s a sprinter. Lay him in running if he comes there cantering 2 down.
The price has shortened on him all week, but we can’t go back in time, so we can only judge the prices as they currently stand, and I think the 2/1 Toronado is with
Qipco 2000 Guineas Tips – 3.50 Newmarket
4pt win Toronado at 2/1 BOG with Betfred
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Stakes are on a scale of 0-10. Further details can be found in Free Horse Racing Tips – Staking and Betting Bank size Recommendations
BOG stands for Best Odds Guaranteed, which means if you take a price and SP is better, you get the SP.
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