In the Queen Anne last year we were treated to a Frankel masterclass. Unfortunately tomorrows field is below par for this race, and the main point of interest is the participation of the former Kentucky Derby and Dubai World Cup winner, Animal Kingdom.
Animal Kingdom is a very good horse. For pure versatility you could call him a great, but in terms of how good he actually is on any given surface, he’s no superstar. He also has plenty to prove here, running in a straight mile on turf for the first time, and he’s priced up more on his Polytrack and Dirt form than anything he’s done on turf. Yes he was a slightly unlucky 2nd to Wise Dan in the Breeders Cup mile last season, and many will point to the fact Excelebration was only 4th, to claim that was top notch form. I’d rather point to the fact that the very ordinary Mr Commons, who hasn’t won any of his last 8 starts, was only 1 1/2l behind Animal Kingdom. Excelebration is a much better horse with the softer ground he got, when he hacked up in the QE2.
Since that run in Santa Anita, Animal Kingdom got beaten by Point of Entry on turf at Gulfstream and that’s pretty ordinary form, even if he did make a premature move mid race. Point Of Entry is the horse who was all out to beat Treasure Beach last season, and I doubt he’d be a group 1 horse in Europe. Even Animal Kingdom’s Polytrack form is no great shakes, he beat Red Cadeaux 2l in the Dubai World Cup over 10 furlongs. The only time Red Cadeaux was even placed over 10 furlongs or shorter before or since, was when he came 3rd in his maiden.
Animal Kingdom is a tough horse, he’s top class, but he’s also very beatable, and that’s presuming he runs his race on his first start in Europe. His price looks to short at 1/1, but his presence gives the race a good each way shape to it and
Declaration Of War went off a scarcely believable 5/4 for the Lockinge. I wrote the night before that the then 9/4 was a shocking price. The Ballydoyle hype machine was in overdrive though, and he actually shortened. On his previous form he looked about a 6/1 shot that day, he needed to improve a good bit, and while he had the scope to do it, his price in no way reflected anything he’d done on the racecourse. In the race he ran like a horse just not good enough, but such is the faith in him from connections that he might still be top class. His price is again to short however, although at least he won’t be 5/4 this time.
Elusive Kate is a good consistent filly, and after winning a group 1 in Deaville last season, she came 3rd to Excelebration at the same track, before a 2nd in the Sun Chariot and a 3rd, again to Excelebration in the QE2. A bit like Animal Kingdom, she’s top class without being a superstar, but she’s a much bigger price and doesn’t have that much to find. Elusive Kate ran very well first run back last season, and any rain would be a bonus, as she hasn’t run on faster than good before. There doesn’t seem to be much pace in this race, so she could also get a soft enough time of it on the front end and must have a good chance.
Trade Storm went to Dubai as a 104 horse in January, and is now rated 116 after winning a handicap and a group 2, before finishing 4th in a group one. He won his races showing a dazzling turn of foot, and looked better than the result in the group one, not getting the best of runs. A slow run race wouldn’t normally suit a hold up horse, but his speed compensates for that to some extent. I am skeptical of any horse whose shown apparent big improvement in Dubai however, and his price doesn’t appeal.
Aljamaaher has only had 8 career starts and has produced some decent efforts in defeat. He is still mildly progressive, and started back this season with a 4 1/4l 3rd to Farhh in the Lockinge. He had Declaration of War well behind that day, although he was a neck behind another of tomorrow rivals, Sovereign Debt. Aljamaaher was a little free through the race however, and has more scope to improve than that one. To place in this he probably won’t have to improve much at all, and winning is not far fetched either.
Sovereign Debt was 2nd in the Lockinge and that was a career best for him. He’s not as lightly raced as Aljamaaher, but he does have a very good record at Ascot. In 4 starts here, he has a win and second to his name, an unplaced effort in the QE2, and a 9th in last season Jersey. He was much better than the result that day though, and would have gone very close with a clear run. He’s very likely to run his race tomorrow and that could very easily see him record another group one place. Trumpet Major would need to run to his very best to get a place.
Animal Kingdom looks to short but with the [adrotate banner=”57″] offer we can take him on with a few each way, safe in the knowledge that if he does win we’ll get a refund on the win part of the bet. Some of the current Paddy Power prices are shorter than whats available elsewhere but that’s no reason not to take them, as we still get best odds guaranteed, and the offer more than compensates. Elusive Kate is only 9/2 with Paddy Power at the moment and will very likely start bigger. Its better to take the price though in case she is shorter. If they get heavy rain she’ll be very well backed. I especially like Aljamaaher at 9/1 as he has the scope to improve enough to win, and is solid for a place. Sovereign Debt is also worth an each way bet at 12/1.
Update 10:04 Tuesday: Paddy Power are now going 7/1 Elusive Kate, 12/1 Aljamaaher and 16/1 Sovereign Debt so are much more in line with other bookies.
2.30 Ascot Tips
1 pt Each Way Elusive Kate at 9/2 BOG with Paddy Power
1 pt Each Way Aljamaaher at 9/1 BOG with Paddy Power
1 pt Each Way Sovereign Debt at 12/1 BOG with Paddy Power
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Stakes are on a scale of 0-10. Further details can be found in Free Horse Racing Tips – Staking and Betting Bank size Recommendations
BOG stands for Best Odds Guaranteed, which means if you take a price and SP is better, you get the SP.
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