Rabobank Champion Hurdle – Tips and Preview – 5.30 Punchestown

This years Rabobank Champion Hurdle see’s a rematch between the first two, from the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. Hurricane Fly regained his crown that day, when he came home 2 1/2l clear of the previous years winner, Rock on Ruby.

Tips for the 5.30 at Punchestown

Hurricane Fly is a remarkably consistent horse, winning 12 of his last 13 starts. The defeat came at Cheltenham in 2012, when he was 3rd to Rock on Ruby. The ground that day was good, and it’s likely that the Hurricane, is not quite as effective on that surface, as he is on the likely soft ground for this. When a horse keeps winning like he does, it can be hard to ascertain how good he is, but it remains the case, that most of his victories, were against horses below the top level over 2 miles. Even Hurricane Fly’s first Champion Hurdle win back in 2011, was a substandard renewal, with Peddlers Cross, and two 2 1/2 milers chasing his home.

I didn’t fancy him much for this years race, and I was giving myself a pat on the back, when he came off the bridle soon after halfway, unable to comfortably lie up, with the fast pace set by Rock on Ruby. He came back on the bridle soon after, but it was only after the 2nd last that he seemed to be going best of all. He hit the front off the last bend, and looked like he might go away and win 6l, but in the end he was all out for a 2 1/2l win. It may be he idled in front, although he has no problem sauntering clear of inferior rivals in Ireland, but even if he had gone away and won 6 or 8l, you could make a case for him being flattered by the margin, as it wouldn’t have been because he quickened clear, more a case of the others stopping. In such scenarios, it is the horses finishing below optimum pace, that could have run faster.

Rock on Ruby won the 2012 Champion Hurdle quite cosily, at the time there was all types of excuses for Hurricane Fly’s defeat. The most prominent, was that Ruby had given him to much to do, this despite the fact that he had him closer to the winner at the 2nd last, than he was at the line. The fact is, the best horse on the day won, and if the ground was similarly good tomorrow, I’d expect Rock on Ruby to beat him again. It’s not going to be though, so we need to evaluate his prospects on soft ground.

It was officially soft in this years Champion, although times suggested, good to soft would have been more accurate. Rock on Ruby was fitted with first time blinkers, connections no doubt worried about a possible lack of pace, and thought adding the blinds, might help him make all. That’s just what he attempted, but was a little to lit up, and set a fast pace. That he battled on so well when passed by Hurricane Fly, is a testament to his toughness. He again has the aid of blinkers here, and Noel Fehily must think he will settle better, or they’d leave them off.

After Cheltenham last season, Rock on Ruby ran a bit flat at Aintree, he skipped that meeting this year, and his trainer reports him as having come out of the race very well. The ground isn’t going to be ideal, but its not as if he doesn’t act on soft, he just isn’t quite as good on it. With a smaller field in this, he also has a tactical advantage over Hurricane Fly. If his jockey can utilize the mid race pace he showed last time, a little later, then he’ll put it up to the him.

Thousand Stars has proven time and again, he’s not good enough to beat Hurricane Fly, and while he bounced back to his best, over his optimum trip of 2 1/2 miles last time, he won’t be winning this, barring accidents to the top two. Rebel Fitz has got well beaten the last twice, by horses who wouldn’t figure in this, so I don’t see any reason why he should. Midnight Game would need huge improvement, and Mister Benedictine has no business in a race like this.

I think Rock on Ruby, is a better horse than Hurricane Fly on good ground, on soft I think Hurricane has the edge, but by nowhere near as much, as the best prices of 2/5 and 9/2 suggest. Looking at the odds you’d think Hurricane only needed to turn up to win, that’s not true, if he’s not at his very best, he can easily get beaten. Rock on Ruby could also have an advantage, in dictating at his own pace. The 9/2 he is with

Last updated by Declan Meagher at September 11, 2018.