Scottish Grand National - Tips, Preview and latest Betting

One of the last big handicaps of the season, the Coral Scottish Grand National, is run over 4 miles and 110 yards at Ayr. Earlier in the week the ground looked likely to ride soft, but it has currently dried to good to soft, and no further rain is forecast. If my preview is not for you, feel free to skip to my tips, or the latest Scottish National betting.

Tips for Scottish National

Latest Scottish National Betting

Rival D’Estruval is the favourite on the back of a promising effort in the National Hunt chase at Cheltenham. He was produced to challenge off the last bend that day, and was upsides when he fell at the 2nd last. At the time he looked like coming off 2nd best to Tofino Bay, but with that one fading up the hill, and losing out to Back in Focus, its hard to tell were Rival D’Estruval would have finished. A fair assessment would have him going very close though. Given the first 2 were rated 150 and 149 respectively, you could see how he might look well handicapped off 144 here. He got a rail hugging ride at Cheltenham though, and the same is far from certain here, indeed when his jockey, Timmy Murphy hangs up his boots, he could surely walk into a job as a tour guide, such is his fondness for going the scenic route, especially in big fields.

Big Occasion won the Midlands National last time, and comes here of a 6lb higher mark. His trainer is quoted as saying this race has been his target, but he also claims a need for soft ground, and its hard not to agree. His last 3 wins have been on soft/heavy ground. It’s likely to be much faster than that here, and the last time he ran on good to soft, he disappointed. He’s currently 2nd in the market at 10/1, but I couldn’t fancy him at that price.

Godsmejudge was beaten 19l in the National Hunt chase, and was well behind Rival D’Estruval at the time of that ones fall. Godsmejudge is only 5lb better off today, and on that basis he should find it hard to turn the tables. He has been steadily progressive though, and there may be more to come. He seems to just about stay the trip, and the flatter track may suit him better. He’s tough, consistent and his trainer, Alan King’s horses have been running very well.

Always Right is an 11 year old, but is lightly raced for that age, having had just 15 starts under rules. He was 3rd, beaten just 1l, in the Scottish National back in 2011, off a 1lb lower mark than tomorrow’s. His form the last two years hasn’t been great, until winning at Kelso last time. He’s surely been trained for this, and with the ground no problem, he should run well, whether he’s well enough handicapped to win remains to be seen.

Our Mick is a well handicapped horse. He finished 3rd in the 2011 JLT Specialty, at Cheltenham, off a rating of 144, and returned for the same race this year, and came 2nd off 145. In between he was unlucky to unseat, when looking like running very well in a hot handicap. He gets into tomorrows race off 145, and I’m pretty sure he can win a big handicap of that mark. I think its more likely to be something like the Paddy Power, than a Scottish National though. In both defeats at Cheltenham he finished quite weakly, having looked like going very close turning in. I can’t see how the extra mile here is going to suit. He’ll probably travel very well for a long way, so you could back him before the race on

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Nuts and Bolts ran in the same Cheltenham race as Our Mick, unlike that one he never looked like winning, but stayed on quite well to be 6th. He definitely has much more chance of appreciating the extra mile here, but he wasn’t gaining much from the last to the line at Cheltenham, and actually got passed for 5th late on. Consequently he may not be as certain to want further, as a literal reading of the ground he gained from the top of the hill might suggest. His jumping wasn’t that slick at Cheltenham, so the extra distance should help in that regard, and if he does stay, he must have a good chance. A slight concern would be if the ground was close to good. His best form is on softer terrain, although the going last time was probably closer to good to soft, than the official soft.

Neptune Equester won over hurdles last time, and has bits and pieces of form that would give him a chance, without really jumping off the page at his current price of 16/1

Monsieur Cadou is improving, and put up a career best performance last time at Haydock. The trip should be fine, he may even improve for it, and even though he’s up 12lb, in a better race, he must have a decent chance. The ground was good to soft at Haydock, and while that should be okay again, I doubt he’d want it any faster.

Auroras Encore is trying to add the Scottish National to the Aintree one he won last time. He was 2nd in this race last season off a perch of 143, before winning the Grand National of 137. He’s up to 148 tomorrow, but considering he was 2nd off just 5lb lower last year, and has since won at Aintree, that’s far from harsh. His overall profile has the look of an inconsistent horse, and I feel that, along with the 2 week gap from his last race, has seen most people write him off for this. I wouldn’t be so hasty though. If you look at his form figures from the middle of March onwards each season, they read 15-191-2f1p-12u-1. He actually performs to a good level in these months every year, and when he was 2nd in this last season, he had won his prep just 3 weeks earlier. Granted that was only a 2 1/2 mile event, and the Aintree National would be harder to get over.

Knockara Beau has some form that would make 33/1 look big, while Problema Tic looks reasonably treated, and ran well at Aintree over 3 miles 1 furlong, but I doubt he wants the mile extra trip. Rigadin De Beauchene beat Godsmejudge back in January, but I think the soft ground that day, suited him better than tomorrows will.

Bradley has often got a bit outpaced before staying on, over shorter trips than tomorrows, and he looks like the type that could improve for the extra distance. If that’s the case then he has a great chance, as his 2nd to subsequent Welsh National victor, Monnbeg Dude will testify. He was off the same mark as tomorrow that day, and has been given a break to freshen up, since a disappointing run in January. The ground will be no problem, and a big run is anticipated.

I wouldn’t put anyone off Auroras Encore, or Nuts and Bolts at the prices, but I’m going to stick to two selections. It should be noted that most bookies are going 4 places each way on the race, but a few are going 5 places. It’s with two bookmakers going 5 places, that we need to have our bets with. I think Bradley will improve for the step up in trip, and the 16/1 with Stan James is well worth taking each way. [adrotate banner=”52″] also offer new accounts a €10 free bet, to match your first bet, so there’s no reason not to sign up. The second bet is Godsmejudge at 14/1 with [adrotate banner=”57″], who are also going 5 places on the race, and have up to €50 in free bets for new accounts.