A fascinating if somewhat tricky to evaluate renewal of the St James Palace Stakes. We have the winner of the Irish and English 2000 Guineas clashing, and the winner will likely be proclaimed as the leading 3 year old miler.
Dawn Approach is a surprising runner here, just 17 days after his Derby flop. While he ran no race after pulling extremely hard, he probably didn’t have a hard race, as he was eased off once beaten, and didn’t have to go through the pain barrier. That said its hardly an ideal preparation, and we are still none the wiser as to what caused him to pull like he did. The pace was fine for the first two furlongs, he was out of control well before it slowed up, and while a bump he got didn’t help, it was strange that a previously well behaved sort got so wound up. I’m surprised nobody has even mentioned the possibility that he was got at in some way, although I’m sure Jim Bolger would have checked his tack for anything suspicious both before, and after the race. I write in more detail on the Derby fallout in Aidan Ruled the World but he needed a good flop.
Its true that even though the pace was fine for 12 furlongs, it would still be slower than the mile pace he had been used to, and the Guineas was run at a very fast gallop. He’ll likely get a good gallop tomorrow, and should settle okay, although that’s far from the only thing that will stop him winning. His form is not all that good in the first place, he’s had most of his races set up for him, and hasn’t looked better than the bare form in any of them. Yes he’s won 3 group one races, but his immediate victims in those races were Designs Of Rome, Leitir Mor and Glory Awaits. That trio went into those group one races with ratings of 91, 105 and 95 and hadn’t looked overly progressive beforehand either. In the Guineas the race suited Dawn Approach’s galloping style, and they actually finished quite slowly, so his 5l margin may flatter him somewhat. Toronado was definitely better than the bare result. If he bounces back tomorrow Dawn Approach has a good chance, but he’s very beatable and a best price of 6/4 makes no appeal.
Magician looked ordinary as a 2 year old, but has improved hugely over the winter and after winning a Derby Trial at Chester he dropped back in trip to win the Irish 2000 Guineas by 3 1/2l. He traveled well though the race but he did get a perfect trip, always in the right spot, sitting about 6l off the pace set by Trading Leather. Some have used Trading Leather winning a listed race at the Curragh last week as reason to upgrade the form, but I disagree, he went to fast, over to short a trip in the Guineas and was perfectly entitled to win the listed race as he did. Indeed Trading Leather did a much better job of setting a race up for Magician than many of Ballydoyle’s own pacemakers have done over the years. While Magician is clearly progressive, a 3 1/2l beating of Gale Force Ten is nothing special. He might come on again and despite an injury scare last week, of the two favourites, I’d prefer him to Dawn Approach.
I thought Toronado would win the Guineas, based on the assumption he looked a potential star, where as I didn’t think Dawn Approach did. I haven’t changed my mind about either of those conclusions, although Toronado does need to prove it tomorrow. In the Craven he made mincemeat of Havana Gold and Dundonnel. Havana Gold franked that form when beaten less than 1l in the French Guineas, and while he was beaten over 6l by Magician in the Irish 2000 he wasn’t treated with the same disdain that Toronado had treated him with. Dundonnel was a further neck behind that day, and he went on to win a decent listed race under a 7lb penalty. Toronado has beaten horses at least the equal of the ones who chased Dawn Approach home, but he’s beaten them with a swagger far great than Dawn Approach ever managed.
Toronado needs forgiven for his 2000 Guineas run but he had excuses. He’s reported to have misplaced his palate which hindered his breathing, and he also got a shocking ride. If one thing was certain before the race, it was that he was a faster horse than the favourite Dawn Approach. Therefore the less of a test the first 6 furlongs were the more chance he had of out speeding that one at the business end. What possessed the normally excellent Richard Hughes to challenge ahead of that one, and kick for home over 2 down, I’ve no idea. The result was he walked the last furlong and wasn’t as bad as the bare result dictates. Even with the soft palate problem he would have finished much closer with a more patient ride. Connections seem happy with him since and hopefully tomorrow we get a chance to see what he can really do.
Mars was 6th in the Guineas on only his second career start, and was entitled to improve. His next start was in the Derby and he ran very well to come 6th again. He was better than the result however, still well behind entering the straight, in what turned into a bit of a sprint. He came home well and while normally you’d say he was better than the result given his position off a slow pace, the other side is that his stamina was a doubt beforehand and it was speed, not stamina that he was displaying in the last few furlongs. There’s no guarantee he would have stayed in a true run race. I notice spotlight mentions its surprising he’s back at a mile having kept on so well over 12 furlongs, but that’s pretty basic analysis. Even a horse best over a mile, will come home well over 12 furlongs in a slow run race, when he’s not asked for any effort till inside the final 3 furlongs. Indeed watch Rip Van Winkle in his fast finishing Derby effort for proof of that. Mars can improve again, and while 10 furlongs may prove to be his optimum, he has a chance tomorrow, provided he’s not used as a hare that is.
Dundonnel isn’t good enough to win, and I’d say he’ll prove to be better over 7 furlongs. Glory Awaits came second at Newmarket and holds that form down in my view, he wasn’t in any way flattered though, and you could make a case for saying he’s to big a price tomorrow at 33/1.
I still think if there’s a real star miler around, its more likely to be Toronado than Dawn Approach and while Magician is progressive, at the prices I think Toronado is worth a chance to prove me right. The 4/1 he is with
St James Palace Stakes Tips
2 pt win Toronado at 4/1 BOG with Betfred
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1 pt each way Mars at 12/1 BOG with Bet Victor
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Stakes are on a scale of 0-10. Further details can be found in Free Horse Racing Tips – Staking and Betting Bank size Recommendations
BOG stands for Best Odds Guaranteed, which means if you take a price and SP is better, you get the SP.
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